I test whether inflation targeting (IT) enhances transparency using inflation forecast data for 11 IT adoption countries. IT adoption promotes convergence in forecast errors, suggesting that it enhances transparency. This effect is robust to dropping observations, is strengthened by using...

This paper presents and then tests a political economy model to analyze the observed positive relationship between income inequality and inflation. The model''s key features are unequal access to both inflation-hedging opportunities and the political process. The model predicts that inequality...

Financial boom-bust cycles -- Lending booms and lending standards / Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Robert Marquez -- Are weak banks leading credit boom? : Evidence from emerging Europe / Deniz Igan, Natalia Tamirisa -- Growth dynamics : the myth of economic review / Valerie Cerra, Sweta Chaman Saxena --...

This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate...

Macrofinancial linkages have long been at the core of the IMF's mandate to oversee the stability of the global financial system. With the advent of the economic crisis, the Fund has drawn on this research in order to contribute to critical debates on the nature of appropriate policy responses at...

This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate...