The expansion in Germany is set to continue despite headwinds from abroad. We leave our forecast as of autumn unchanged and expect GDP to grow by 1.9 percent in 2016 and by 1.7 percent in 2017. The effects of the Brexit-vote on the German economy will be modest in this period. The long-run...

Climate change and monetary policy are becoming increasingly intertwined. The relationship between climate risk and inflation is non-trivial, presenting the ECB with a number of trade-offs in its monetary policy operations. Lately, the ECB has stepped up its efforts to embed climate change...

Climate change and monetary policy are becoming increasingly intertwined. The relationship between climate risk and inflation is non-trivial, presenting the ECB with a number of trade-offs in its monetary policy operations. Lately, the ECB has stepped up its efforts to embed climate change...

The global economy continues to expand at a moderate pace. The somewhat faster pace in the spring appears to have slowed again in the summer. In the United States, the economy is gradually losing momentum. At the same time, economic momentum in Europe remains low and a sustained economic...

The global economy is facing increased economic policy uncertainty in a phase of already moderate momentum. The announcements made by the incoming US administration are the main reason for this. However, it is unclear what measures will actually be taken. This forecast is based on the assumption...

The global economy has expanded at a moderate pace so far this year. Meanwhile, the previously pronounced differences in economic momentum have diminished, particularly in the advanced economies. While the robust expansion in the United States lost momentum, the economy in Europe picked up...

In spring 2022, world economic growth came to a standstill amid high inflation, persistent supply bottlenecks and elevated uncertainty. In many countries real wages are declining significantly dampening private consumption even though extra savings accumulated during the pandemic are still...

The global economy held up better than expected in the face of the inflation shock and the massive tightening of monetary policy in 2023, even if the economic expansion was moderate. Inflation is now falling swiftly and monetary policy is expected to start cutting interest rates in the first...

In a situation with already elevated inflation, the war in Ukraine and the zero-covid policy in China have led to additional upward pressures on prices and reinforced the global supply chain problems. Real wages are declining in many countries, dampening personal consumption expenditures even...

Die Weltwirtschaft expandiert derzeit in moderatem Tempo, wobei die Dynamik in den einzelnen Regionen recht unterschiedlich ist. Während die Konjunktur in den Vereinigten Staaten bis zuletzt kräftig war, befindet sich die Wirtschaft im Euroraum in einer Phase der Stagnation; im Vereinigten...