This paper addresses the out-of-sample prediction of European Monetary Union yield spread changes. We extend the Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) approach by using liquidity variables, namely funding liquidity as measured by European Central Bank's unconventional monetary policy as well as a...

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are...

We examine risk factors that explain daily changes in aggregate credit default swap (CDS) spreads before, during and after the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Based on the European iTraxx CDS index universe, we document time-variation in the significance of spread determinants. Before and after the...

We investigate daily variations in credit spreads on investment grade Deutschemark-denominated Eurobonds during the challenging 1994 to 1998 period. Empirical results from a Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) two-factor regression, extended for correlated spread changes and heteroskedasticity,...