Die Beiträge des Bandes befassen sich mit den Mechanismen der Preisbildung auf den Finanz- und Devisenmärkten. Besonderes Interesse gilt der Rolle von Spekulation und Arbitrage und der sich daraus ergebenden Volatilität der Finanzmarktpreise. -- Der Beitrag von E. W. Streissler hat die...

Stylized empirical facts about the behaviour of exchange rates and interest rate differentials in real world target zone arrangements are at odds with the predictions of the simple (fully credible) target zone model. Incorporating time-varying devaluation risk in target zone models results in...

A joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics is specified and estimated for the euro area. The model comprises a backward-looking Phillips curve, a dynamic IS equation, a monetary policy rule as well as a specification of the dynamics of trend growth and the natural real interest...

This paper provides new empirical evidence that bears on the efficacy of unconventional monetary policies when the main policy rate is negative. When a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is deployed in concert with rate forward guidance (FG) and quantitative easing (QE), the identification of...

We propose a shadow-rate term structure model for the euro area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields had turned negative at various maturities. Yields in the model are constrained by a lower bound, but - as a special feature of our specification - the bound is allowed to change...

We propose an arbitrage-free shadow-rate term structure model to analyze the euro-area yield curve from 1999 to mid-2015, when bond yields turned negative at various maturities. In the model the 'shadow rate' can reach any positive or negative level, while the actual one-month rate cannot fall...