Many papers find that the term spread of the term structure of government bond yields can predict future output growth. This paper extends that literature by exploiting information in the entire term structure of interest rates. I apply a dynamic version of the Nelson–Siegel yield curve model...

This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing...

We provide evidence on the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending. Using detailed data on banks' lending activities coupled with term premium shocks identified using high-frequency event study or instrumental variables, we show that a steeper yield curve...