As observed in the financial crisis, CDS spreads tend to increase simutaneously as a reaction to common shocks. Focusing on the spillover effects triggered by extreme events, we propose a credit risk analysis tool by applying credit default swap spread returns to the concept of 4CoVaR suggested...

The new structural model of credit risk based on a normal firm value diffusion process can infer the firm value volatility from bank credit spreads that closely agreeing with the empirically estimated firm value volatility. We use the spread-implied firm value volatility as the model volatility...

Default risk in equity returns can be measured by structural models of default. In this paper we propose a credit warning signal (CWS) based on the Merton default risk (MDR) model and a Regime-switching default risk (RSDR) model. The RSDR model is a generalization of the MDR model, comprises...

Based on a reduced-form model of credit risk, we explore mispricing in the CDS spreads of North American companies and its economic content. Specifically, we develop a trading strategy using the model to trade out of sample market-neutral portfolios across the term structure of CDS contracts....

Quanto CDS spreads are differences in CDS premiums of the same reference entity but in different currency denominations. Such spreads can arise in arbitrage-free models and depend on the risk of a jump in the exchange rate upon default of the underlying and the covariance between the exchange...

We investigate a structural model of market and firm-level dynamics in order to jointly price long-dated S&P 500 options and tranche spreads on the five-year CDX index. We demonstrate the importance of calibrating the model to match the entire term structure of CDX index spreads because it...

We find that firm-level variance risk premium, estimated as the difference between option-implied and expected variances, has a prominent explanatory power for credit spreads in the presence of market- and firm-level risk control variables identified in the existing literature. Such a...

We analyse the determinants of Australian corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads. In addition to structural determinants, consisting of equity returns, equity volatility and risk-free interest rates, we show that CDS spreads are impacted by the uncertainty of asset values as proxied by the...

We find that firm-level variance risk premium, estimated as the difference between option-implied and expected variances, has a prominent explanatory power for credit spreads in the presence of market- and firm-level risk control variables identified in the existing literature. Such a...

I propose a new procedure for extracting probabilities of default from structural credit risk models based on model implied credit spreads (MICS) and implement this approach assuming a barrier option framework nesting the Merton (1974) model of capital structure. MICS are the increase in the...