Long-horizon interest rates in the major international bond markets fell sharply during 2004 and 2005, at the same time as US policy rates were rising; a phenomenon famously described as a 'conundrum' by Alan Greenspan the Federal Reserve Chairman. But it was arguably the decline in...

We propose a new approach to model high and low frequency components of equity correlations. Our framework combines a factor asset pricing structure with other specifications capturing dynamic properties of volatilities and covariances between a single common factor and idiosyncratic returns....

The main goal of this paper is to examine the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and yield curve movements in Hungary. To this end, we apply a Nelson-Siegel type dynamic yield curve model, where changes of the yield curve are driven by two latent factors and some key macro variables that...

In this paper we analyze the performance of an equilibrium model of the term structure of the interest rate under Epstein-Zin/Weil preferences in which consumption growth and inflation follow a VAR process with logistic stochastic volatility. We find that the model can successfully reproduce the...

The paper investigates the effect of interest rate variance on the shape of the yield curve using a bivariate 2-state Markov switching model for the short rate changes and the yield curve slope. The two states are characterized by the variance of the short rate changes: Low and high variance. In...

A mark-to-market approach for convertible bonds is proposed where the volatility from the bond optionality is implied from the traded credit spread and bond price. By linking the convertible bond implied volatility to the listed equity option implied volatility surface, the set of available...

This paper presents a new procedure for forecasting recessions utilizing short-term (slope) dynamics present in the yield curve. Building on a large body of literature chronicling the relationship between the shape of the yield curve and the business cycle, this paper employs Dynamic...

The new structural model of credit risk based on a normal firm value diffusion process can infer the firm value volatility from bank credit spreads that closely agreeing with the empirically estimated firm value volatility. We use the spread-implied firm value volatility as the model volatility...

In this paper, we examine the forecasting ability of an affine term structure framework that jointly models the markets for Treasuries, inflation-protected securities, inflation derivatives, and oil future prices based on no-arbitrage restrictions across these markets. On the methodological...

Using a new structural model of credit risk based on the normal instead of the lognormal firm value dynamics and market price implied asset value volatility as the model volatility input, we quantify the value of credit spreads of the four largest U.S. banks had their senior unsecured bonds...