We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...

The ability of term spread to forecast U.S. output growth could be improved by two ways: (i) Combining with the Harrod-Domar variable - net saving as a percentage of gross national income - that used to proxy for aggregate supply; and (ii) Using a system of simultaneous equations, in which U.S....

We analyse the term structure of interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, borrowing constraint, and positive net supply of government bonds. Uninsured idiosyncratic shocks generate bond trades, while aggregate shocks cause fluctuations in the trading price of bonds....

This paper exploits information from the variance-ratios of macroeconomic variables to infer about the short and long-run components of dividend risk and inflation risk. While labor rigidity shifts dividend risk towards the short horizon, it also reveals - by means of labor-share variation - the...

Robust empirical evidence suggests that a steep slope of the nominal yield curve predicts an increase in the future real activity. We show that the negative of the slope closely traces the variation in the ex-ante real rate. We then argue that the predictive content of the slope for real...

We analyze the term structure of real interest rates in a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets and borrowing constraints. Agents are subject to both aggregate and idiosyncratic income shocks, which latter may force them into early portfolio liquidation in a bad aggregate state. We...

“Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) and other forms of consumer credit create a wedge between consumption and payments. We introduce this wedge into a standard consumption-based asset pricing model (CCAPM). In equilibrium, the pricing kernel equals the marginal utility of consumption divided by the...

This paper suggests an affine term structure model of real interest rates to predict changes in real consumption growth. The model is estimated, jointly, by real interest rates and consumption data, and it is found to be consistent with the consumption smoothing hypothesis. The paper shows that...

Output, wages and dividends feature term-structures of variance-ratios respectively flat, increasing and decreasing. Income insurance from shareholders to workers empirically and theoretically explains these term-structures. Risk sharing smooths wages but only concerns transitory risk and,...

Recent empirical findings document downward-sloping term structures of equity return volatility and risk premia. An equilibrium model with rare disasters followed by recoveries helps reconcile theory with empirical observations. Indeed, recoveries outweigh the upward-sloping effect of...