We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for extracting the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and for estimating the parameters in the model....

This discussion paper led to a publication in the <I>International Journal of Forecasting</I> (2013). Vol. 29, pages 676-694.<P> We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for...</p></i>

This discussion paper led to a publication in the 'Journal of Applied Econometrics'</I>, 2014, 29(1), 65-90.<P> We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor...</p>

We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on the factor loadings. Cubic spline functions are used to introduce smoothness in factor loadings. We develop statistical procedures based on Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests for this...

We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for extracting the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and for estimating the parameters in the model....

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models in order to include macroeconomic factors. Our work benefits from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature related to the extraction of the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and the estimation of the...

Existing studies on interest rate forecasting either treat yields as being stationary around a fixed mean or as a random walk process. In this study we consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that the yield curve is driven by factors that are stationary...