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We introduce a flexible, time-varying network model to trace the propagation of interest rate surprises across different maturities. First, we develop a novel econometric framework that allows for unknown, potentially asymmetric contemporaneous spillovers across panel units, and establish the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013239324
We introduce a flexible, time-varying network model to trace the propagation of interest rate surprises across different maturities. First, we develop a novel econometric framework that allows for unknown, potentially asymmetric contemporaneous spillovers across panel units and establish the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418796
We introduce a flexible, time-varying network model to trace the propagation of interest rate surprises across different maturities. First, we develop a novel econometric framework that allows for unknown, potentially asymmetric contemporaneous spillovers across panel units, and establish the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012488662
The slope of the implied volatility term structure is positively related to future option returns. We rank firms based on the slope of the volatility term structure and analyze the returns for straddle portfolios. Straddle portfolios with high slopes of the volatility term structure outperform...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013008475
This paper considers a class of Heath-Jarrow-Morton (1992) term structure models, characterized by time deterministic volatilities for the instantaneous forward rate. The bias that arises from using observed futures yields as a proxy for the unobserved instantaneous forward rate is analyzed. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005413218
We consider forward rate rate models of HJM type, as well as more general infinite dimensional SDEs, where the volatility/diffusion term is stochastic in the sense of being driven by a separate hidden Markov process. Within this framework we use the previously developed Hilbert space realization...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001664233
For finite dimensional factor models, the paper studies general quadratic term structures. These term structures include as special cases the affine term structures and the Gaussian quadratic term structures, previously studied in the literature. We show, however, that there are other,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001991041
In this paper we study a fairly general Wiener driven model for the term structure of forward prices. The model, under a fixed martingale measure, Q, consists of two infinite dimensional stochastic differential equations (SDEs). The first system is a standard HJM model for (forward) interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002450616
This paper reexamines the issue of unspanned stochastic volatility (USV) in bond markets and the puzzle of poor relative pricing between bonds and bond options. I make a distinction between the "weak USV" and the "strong USV" scenarios, and analyze the evidence for each of them. I argue that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014218891
This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, particularly across...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014223063