The ability of term spread to forecast U.S. output growth could be improved by two ways: (i) Combining with the Harrod-Domar variable - net saving as a percentage of gross national income - that used to proxy for aggregate supply; and (ii) Using a system of simultaneous equations, in which U.S....

There is a consensus that during the Great Recession period quantitative easing puts downward pressure on long-term interest rates. Using quarterly data and vector autoregressive model this note provides empirical evidence that quantitative easing, measured by changes in monetary base as a...