We show theoretically and empirically that no-arbitrage pricing magnifies the importance of noise when replication requires offsetting positions with similar fundamentals. This occurs because fundamentals are hedged, while any errors in the underlying asset prices are levered and amplified....

We model term structure dynamics using a recursive cascade of heterogeneously persistent factors. The cascade naturally orders the factors by their adjustment speeds, and generates smooth zero-coupon bond prices and forward curves in closed form. For a class of specifications, the number of...