In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the period - although in general at a level below the...

Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policy-making -- especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, e.g. such as alternative...

This study empirically addresses claims about the effects of strikes on output growth, inflation, and non-agricultural employment in South Africa using a structural analysis of Bayesian VAR models with a Normal inverted Wishart prior for the period 1982-2018. We find empirical support for a...