innovational outliers, within a forecasting framework for macroeconomic variables. Drawing on data from the COVID-19 pandemic, the … outperform both those with innovational outlier corrections and no outlier corrections in forecasting post-pandemic household …-lived extreme observations, as in the case of pandemics. These results carry important implications for macroeconomic forecasting …

The forecasting literature has identi ed two important issues: (i) several predictors have substantial and … learned about forecasting in the presence of instabilities. The empirical evidence raises a multitude of questions. If in …-sample tests provide poor guidance to out-of-sample forecasting ability, what should researchers do? If there are statistically …

are particularly interested in dynamic asymmetries in unemployment rates and the forecasting performance of different … global financial crisis. We find that forecasting ability of the models depends on the forecasting horizon as well as on the …