In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...

We use a TVP-VAR model to investigate possible changes in the time series properties of key Norwegian macroeconomic variables since the 1980s. The sample period is characterised by deregulation, globalization, sizable petroleum revenues, a switch from exchange rate to inflation targeting and...

A framework for forecasting new COVID-19 cases jointly with hospital admissions and hospital beds with COVID-19 cases is presented. This project, dubbed CovidMod, produced 21-days ahead forecasts each working day from March 2021 to April 2022, and forecast errors that were used to assess...

We present a framework for interpretation of the empirical results of New Keynesian models of inflation dynamics. Both the rational expectations solution of the structural New Keynesian Phillips curve, NKPC, and the reduced form VAR analysis of the multivariate time series properties give...

In this paper the effects on aggregate consumption of changes in the age distribution of the population are analysed empirically. Economic theories predict that age influences individuals’ saving and consumption behaviour. Despite this, age structure effects are rarely controlled for in...