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Dieses fundierte Lehrbuch führt umfassend und praxisrelevant in die statistische Methodenlehre für wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Studiengänge ein. Verfahren der Deskriptiven Statistik, der Explorativen Datenanalyse, der Stochastik, der Induktiven Statistik sowie der Multivariaten Statistik...
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represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866191
We used neural-network based modelling to generalize the linear econometric return models and compare their out-of-sample predictive ability in terms of different performance measures under three density specifications.(...)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005844728
We propose a method to incorporate information from Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models into Dynamic Factor Analysis. The method combines a procedure previously applied for Bayesian Vector Autoregressions and a Gibbs Sampling approach for Dynamic Factor Models. The factors in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316078
Recent results on so-called SEMIFAR models introduced by Beran (1997) are discussed. The nonparametric deterministic trend is estimated by a kernel method. The differencing and fractional differencing parameters as well as the autoregressive coefficients are estimated by an approximate maximum...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010316696
. Using an out-of-sample forecasting exercise and a stability analysis, it is shown that core money growth carries important … information not contained in the inflation history, that its inclusion in a forecasting model can increase the forecasting … forecasting model at all horizons is the one proposed by Gerlach (2004) that includes the inflation gap, the difference between …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260569
We develop a method for directly modeling cointegrated multivariate time series that are observed in mixed frequencies. We regard lower-frequency data as regularly (or irregularly) missing and treat them with higher-frequency data by adopting a state-space model. This utilizes the structure of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264085
aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010270456