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of random matrix theory, a branch of probability theory; and an introduction of the Shannon entropy as a measure of noise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062134
Alexander Izmailov, Ph.D (theoretical physics) and Brian Shay, Ph.D (mathematics), of Market Memory Trading, L.L.C., present in a series of nine (9) white papers, aspects of a revolutionary advance in uncovering hidden dependencies via filtering noise from correlation matrices developed by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062136
International Monetary Fund, as measured by standard evaluation measures, such as the root mean square forecast error. In comparison … to other models, our approach offers several methodological advantages, inter alia, a focus on import growth as the core …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012733678
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model, the predictive system improves forecast precision by 18.90% for the export growth rate, and by 7.95% for the import …'s export and import growth rates, the predictive system has better out-of-sample predictive powers than the conventional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012968343
. -- Directional forecasts ; directional accuracy ; forecast evaluation ; testing independence ; contingency tables ; bootstrap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003796145
In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012753643
This paper conducts a USDTRY rate forecast by ARIMA method using 3,069 daily observations between the dates of 3 … forecast using ARIMA method generate static models, and none of them conduct multi-step prediction or out of sample fit. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011881287
This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011532311
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