Similar Search Results

Business Cycles Fluctuations in Morocco Macroeconomics Times Series : GDP Components, Employment and Monetary Aggregates

El Alaoui, Aicha - 2020

This paper tries to describe the Moroccan business cycles in both terms: classical and growth cycles, and to characterize its main regularities. The purpose of this study is to analyse the importance of the magnitude of the observable macroeconomic times series changes in predicting fluctuations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014094527

Nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root tests and the great moderation

Hanck, Christoph; Czudaj, Robert - 2013

This paper argues that typical applications of panel unit root tests should take possible nonstationarity in the volatility process of the innovations of the panel time series into account. Nonstationarity volatility arises for instance when there are structural breaks in the innovation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009779045

Nonstationary-volatility robust panel unit root tests and the great moderation : conference paper

Hanck, Christoph; Czudaj, Robert - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343777

The Role of Oil Prices and Monetary Policy in the Norwegian Economy Since the 1980s

Akram, Qaisar Farooq - 2016

We use a TVP-VAR model to investigate possible changes in the time series properties of key Norwegian macroeconomic variables since the 1980s. The sample period is characterised by deregulation, globalization, sizable petroleum revenues, a switch from exchange rate to inflation targeting and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998261

Adaptive Inflation Expectations Under Structural Changes : The Case of Finland

Junttila, Juha-Pekka - 1997

Via the use of rolling regression technique and a specific procedure for analyzing strong structural breaks in a univariate time series model, we forecast the rate of future inflation in Finland for the time period of unregulated financial markets since the beginning of 1987. We are able to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014061468

Unobserved components model(s) : output gaps and financial cycles

Guillochon, Justine; Le Roux, Julien - 2023

The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343145

A VAR model for monetary policy analysis in a small open economy

Jacobson, Tor; Jansson, Per; Vredin, Anders; Warne, Anders - 1999

for economic analysis. This paper demonstrates how a VAR model with long run restrictions justified by economic theory can …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584357

Using Mean Reversion as a Measure of Persistence

Dias, Daniel; Marques, Carlos Robalo - 2021

This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the "unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t" and its estimator, is made clear...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318721

Real-time consideration of systematic patterns in Maltese GDP data and revisions

Debono, Nathaniel - 2024

Economic policies are generally formulated on the basis of data available in real time, which might subsequently be revised. Implicitly, the possibility of data revisions creates an element of uncertainty around the very same data driving policy decisions. Given that such uncertainty could be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014461449

Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets

Lux, Thomas; Schornstein, Sascha - 2002

equilibrium dynamics resulting from this learning process helps to explain the main stylized facts of free-floating exchange rates … the number of agents (not more than about 1000). With a larger population, this collective learning dynamics looses its … Hauptinteresse geht dahin, herauszufinden, ob die Gleichgewichtsdynamik, die aus diesem Lernprozess resultiert, dabei helfen kann …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431839