Weather and temperatures vary in ways that are difficult to explain and predict precisely. In this article we review data on temperature variations in the past as well possible reasons for these variations. Subsequently, we review key properties of global climate models and statistical analyses...

Ethanol has been the subject of intense debate following the adoption of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) which established that the gasoline supply in the United States (U.S.) must contain 10% ethanol. This work seeks to identify hedging ratios using dynamic multivariate GARCH to best...

On the tracking and replication of hedge fund optimal investment portfolio strategies in global The hedge fund represents a unique investment opportunity for the institutional and private investors in the diffusion-type financial systems. The main objective of this condensed article is to...

This paper addresses the open debate about the effectiveness and practical relevance of high-frequency (HF) data in portfolio allocation. Our results demonstrate that when used with proper econometric models, HF data offers gains over daily data and more importantly these gains are maintained...

Ever since Harry Markowitz published his seminal paper on portfolio selection, investors have incorporated estimates of future volatilities and correlations into their asset allocation process. While portfolio construction methods continue to evolve, many investors continue to forecast...

Should long-term investors account for time-variation in model parameters? We develop a time-varying Vector Autoregressive model that can handle time-variation in intercepts, slopes, volatility and correlation, the leverage effect in volatility and fat tails. Long-term investors should take...

This paper addresses the open debate about the effectiveness and practical relevance of highfrequency (HF) data in portfolio allocation. Our results demonstrate that when used with proper econometric models, HF data offers gains over daily data and more importantly these gains are maintained...

This paper addresses the open debate about the usefulness of high-frequency (HF) data in large-scale portfolio allocation. Daily covariances are estimated based on HF data of the S&P 500 universe employing a blocked realized kernel estimator. We propose forecasting covariance matrices using a...

This paper addresses the open debate about the usefulness of high-frequency (HF) data in large-scale portfolio allocation. We consider the problem of constructing global minimum variance portfolios based on the constituents of the S&P 500 over a four-year period covering the 2008 financial...

In this paper we investigate exponential smoothing (ES) predictors for the weights of high-dimensional realized global minimum variance portfolios (GMVP) which only depend on the realized covariance matrix of risky financial assets. We compare direct ES predictions of realized GMVP proportions...