This paper uses discrete-time and continuous-time models to derive equilibrium relations among real and nominal interest rates and the expected growth, variance and covariance parameters of optimally chosen paths for aggregate real consumption and aggregate production. Simple, intuitive and...

The century low, near-zero short-term interest rates in the USA, Euro Area, the UK and Japan after the Great Recession of 2008/2009 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010-2013 make the non-normality and non-lognormality of short-term interest rates quite clear. To uncover the changing...

This article computes the returns from dynamic hedging of the interest rate and prepayment risks of insured fixed rate mortgages. Changing durations cause dynamic hedges with futures markets. Nonparallel shifts in the yield curve are also investigated. Hedges are found to be risk-reducing, but...

This article computes empirical option costs for fixed rate mortgages and compares them to brokers' forecasts. Estimates of risks for mortgage derivatives such as IOs are also examined and shown to have very substantial errors and very substantial differences in the forecasts by different brokers