Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX investment grade index (CDX-IG) into a permanent and a stationary component. We explain the evolution of the two components in relating them to monetary policy and stock market variables....

Using a Markov switching unobserved component model we decompose the term premium of the North American CDX investment grade index (CDX-IG) into a permanent and a stationary component. We explain the evolution of the two components in relating them to monetary policy and stock market variables....

We examine whether professional forecasters incorporate high-frequency information about credit conditions when revising their economic forecasts. Using Mixed Data Sampling regression approach, we find that daily credit spreads have significant predictive ability for monthly forecast revisions...