The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

In this paper, I study risk-neutral probability densities regarding future Libor rates denominated in British pounds, euros, and US dollars as implied by option prices. I apply Breeden and Litzenberger's (1978) result regarding the relationship between option prices and implied probabilities for...

We analyse the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area. Using a new estimation technique, we look at the tail co-movement between the moments of short- and long-term distributions of inflation expectations, where those distributions are estimated from daily quotes of...

The paper studies estimation of implied volatility and the impact of the choice of the corresponding risk-free rate proxy. We suggest to analyze the implied volatility and the risk-free rate proxy inferred in conjunction from the observed option prices. We formulate and solve an overdefined...

The illiquidity of long-maturity options has made it difficult to study the term structures of option spanning portfolios. This paper proposes a new estimation and inference framework for these option-implied term structures that addresses long-maturity illiquidity. By building a sieve estimator...

We analyze the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area during the post-crisis period, with a focus on the time span from 2014 onwards when long-term beliefs have substantially drifted away from the policy target. Using a new estimation technique, we look at tail...

Implicit in interest rate derivatives are Arrow-Debreu prices (or state price densities, SPDs) that contain fundamental information for risk and portfolio management in interest rate markets. To extract such information from interest rate derivatives, we propose a non-parametric method to...

In this paper, I study risk-neutral probability densities regarding future Libor rates denominated in British pounds, euros, and US dollars as implied by option prices. I apply Breeden and Litzenberger's (1978) result regarding the relationship between option prices and implied probabilities for...

This paper presents a joint analysis of the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads and the implied volatility surface. The rapid development of the CDS market has provided convenient products to extract credit risk, and its interaction with equity volatility has been analyzed in...