The first three factors resulting from a principal components analysis of term structure data are in the literature typically interpreted as driving the level, slope and curvature of the term structure. Using slight generalisations of theorems from total positivity, we present sufficient...

This paper investigates how the market implicitly prices very long-dated cash-flows. We do this empirically, using daily market data on the 3½% War Loan, a UK infinite maturity coupon bond. We price the War Loan as an American option with 100 years of maturity. To this end, we perform daily...

We introduce a robust investment strategy to hedge long dated liabilities under model misspecification and incomplete bond markets. A robust agent who worries about misspecified bond premia follows a min-max expected shortfall criterion to protect against model uncertainty. We employ a backward...