When covered interest parity holds, as appears to be the case, the forward exchange rate is not the expected future spot rate. As a result: (1) in general covered and uncovered interest parity are mutually inconsistent; (2) the standard equation that produces the forward-bias puzzle is...

A complete solution to the forward-bias puzzle should provide an econometric solution and an economic explanation for that solution. A complete solution should also explain the closely related failure of uncovered interest parity. In addition it should explain some related anomalies. One such...

The forward-bias puzzle is probably the most important puzzle in international macroeconomics. After more than 20 years, there is no accepted solution. My solution is based on covered interest parity (CIP). CIP implies: (1) Forward rates are not rational expectations of future spot rates. Those...

The forward-bias puzzle is probably the most important puzzle in international finance. But there is a simple solution. Covered interest parity implies that the forward-bias puzzle is the result of two omitted variables: (1) the future change in the forward exchange rate and (2) the future...