We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We find that...

We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We compare a VAR model of expectations for data which is presented in a fiscal frame with one for neutrally presented data. We measure the...

We generate observable expectations about fiscal variables through laboratory experiments using real world data from several European countries as stimuli. We estimate an econometric model of individual expectations for fiscal policy, which nests various theories of expectations--forming and...

This paper discusses the econometric model of inflation processes in the Republic of Belarus which makes it possible to explain major factors determining the dynamics of the GDP deflator, consumer price index and producer price index during the period 1994 - 2003. For estimation of the model the...

This paper develops a simple sequential multiple horizon non-causation test strategy for trivariate VAR models (with one auxiliary variable). We apply the test strategy to a rolling window study of money supply and real income, with the price of oil, the unemployment rate and the spread between...

Understanding the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is important in enhancing the economy of a nation. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach, this study finds that stock market development is cointegrated with economic growth in...

Most people seem to think that Russia’s economy and fiscal situation are still crucially tied up with international oil prices and the exchange rate of the rouble, although this view has recently been challenged by some analysts. Empirical research on this topic is, however, scanty. In this...

The use of subspace algorithms for the identification of non-stationary cointegrated stochastic systems is a promising technique that is currently under discussion. A revision of the literature provides two distinct algorithms: State Space Aoki Time Series (SSATS) identification algorithm (Aoki...

In this paper I present an alternative derivation of the asymptotic distribution of Kremers, Ericsson and Dolado's (1992) conditional ECM- based t-test for no-cointegration with a single prespecified cointegrating vector. This alternative distribution, which is identical to the distribution of...

This article explores by an econometric approach the permanent income hypothesis. The classical cointegration analysis applied by Cochrane and the Kalman filter technology with correlated error components are used. The latter approach compared with the former reveals a clear rejection of PIH for...