Obtaining the distribution of the profit and loss (PL) of a portfolio is a key problem in market risk measurement. However, existing methods, such as those based on the Normal distribution, and historical simulation methods, which use empirical distribution of risk factors, face difficulties in...

We formulate a general cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model that nests both a class of consumption Euler equations and various Keynesian type consumption functions. Using likelihoodbased methods and Norwegian data, we find support for cointegration between consumption, income and...

Abstract In this paper we study conditional distributions of independent, but not identically distributed Bernoulli random variables. The conditioning variable is the sum of the Bernoulli variables. We obtain Edgeworth expansions for the conditional expectations and the conditional variances and...

It is an original paper, which shows how the hierarchical model with two levels, can be used to determine the linear non-homogeneous credibility premiums at the sector level and at the contract level. The fact that it is based on complicated mathematics, involving conditional expectations,...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions.  We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...

This paper is the sequel of Part I [1], where we showed how to use the so-called Malliavin calculus in order to devise efficient Monte-Carlo (numerical) methods for Finance. First, we return to the formulas developed in [1] concerning the "greeks" used in European options, and we answer to the...

Two approaches dominate the time series literature for modeling expected value models. The first one is based on observable variables and includes ARMA and GARCH models, while the second one is based on latent variables and includes state space and stochastic volatility (or SV) models. The first...

The deterministic extended-path (EP) method for solving dynamic stochastic optimisation problems approximates conditional expectations instead of approximating a model's complex non-linear dynamics. For a benchmark real business cycle model we show that this straightforward approach provides...