We develop a model to study the macroeconomic effects of public investment surges in low-income countries, making explicit: (i) the investment-growth linkages; (ii) public external and domestic debt accumulation; (iii) the fiscal policy reactions necessary to ensure debt-sustainability; and (iv)...

This paper presents an analysis of the public investment scaling-up strategy for Togo using a dynamic macroeconomic model that explicitly analyzes the links between public investment, economic growth, and debt sustainability. In the model, public capital is productive and complementary to...

Lebanon recovered from the financial shock triggered by Prime Minister Hariri’s assassination. Executive Directors supported the strategy of debt reduction through sustained fiscal adjustment. They welcomed the proactive stance of banking sector supervision and encouraged adoption of a...

Tajikistan’s economic performance has been satisfactory, but challenges still remain. Executive Directors agreed that the challenge is to support recovery while addressing risks to macroeconomic stability. They emphasized for prudent monetary stance to avoid inflation and also to address...

The 2006 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of Tajikistan explains political and economic developments. Although Tajikistan’s external debt profile has improved significantly, total public and publicly guaranteed debt is projected to increase significantly, mainly because of large...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that effective economic management and an outward-oriented development strategy have contributed to placing Tunisia’s economic performance over the past decade among the best in the region. Real GDP growth accelerated from 4 percent in 2005 to...

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach. We build on a recursive identification scheme, but we: (i) include the feedback from government debt (ii); look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the...

The aim of this study is to develop a new framework (V-L-D) for detecting the short term vulnerabilities in fiscal policy for the European Union countries. The methodology relies ontwo distinct indicators: one showing the vulnerabilities signalled by the size of the cyclically adjusted budget...

This paper analyses in a VAR framework with debt feedback effects of fiscal policy over 1999q1-2013q4 in five Central and East European economies: Slovakia, Czech republic, Hungary, Slovenia and Lithuania. The results are compared to two alternative specifications, a model without debt feedback,...

If compliance with a fiscal rule in certain periods requires procyclical fiscal policy, it means that fiscal policy does not mitigate the cyclical fluctuations of the economy, but rather may amplify them, i.e. it is unable to perform its stabilisation function. On the basis of the analysis of...