Distributed lag models are an important tool in modeling dynamic systems in economics. In the analysis of composite forms of such models, the component models are ordered in parallel (with the same independent variable) and/or in series (where the independent variable is also the dependent...

Little is known about how children of high-income expatriate families, often from rich nations, adapt to temporary residence in a severely polluted city of the developing world. We use a six-year panel of 6,500 students at three international schools in a major city in north China to estimate...

In Closing the Case on Closure in Cole's Model Randall Jackson and Moss Madden critique my solution to the time-lagged regional input-output model. My rebuttal demonstrates that they: i) interpret my model incorrectly, ii) are inconsistent in their own specification, and iii) make inapplicable...

This paper is concerned with time series forecasting in the presence of a large number of predictors. The results are of interest, for instance, in macroeconomic and financial forecasting where often many potential predictor variables are available. Most of the current forecast methods with many...

The theory of distributed lags is that any cause produces a supposed effect only after some lag in time, and that this effect is not felt all at once, but is distributed over a number of points in time. Irving Fisher initiated this theory and provided an empirical methodology in the 1920's. This...

The question whether exchange rate risk a¤ects trade has received considerable attention in the literature. However, the conclusions are still mixed. This paper analyzes why it is so difficult to obtain a clear answer from time series analyses. We use data on bilateral aggregate US exports to...

The analysis presented in this paper is focused on the basic properties of discrete distributed lag models. Such models are commonly used to model dynamic systems in different applications. In the presented considerations, time-varying distributed lags are analyzed. The composite distributed lag...

This paper is concerned with time series forecasting in the presence of a large number of predictors. The results are of interest, for instance, in macroeconomic and financial forecasting where often many potential predictor variables are available. Most of the current forecast methods with many...

This paper examines the problem of appropriately specifying and estimating the money demand function in the presence of adaptive expectations and partial adjustment mechanisms. The paper demonstrates the difficulty of interpreting distributed lag reduced form representations of the monetary...

The distributed lags models enable the construction of the lag mean, median and variance. The estimators of parameters of the distributed lags models and the autoregressive distributed lags models enable to create the estimators of these basic characteristics. It is obvious that the values of...