Showing 1 - 10 of 41
exploit many predictors, and this chapter surveys these methods. The first group of methods considered is forecast combination … (forecast pooling), in which a single forecast is produced from a panel of many forecasts. The second group of methods is based … increasingly precise as the number of series increases) can be used to forecast individual economic variables. The third group of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023696
Having a correct assessment of current business cycle conditions is one of the major challenges for monetary policy conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a useful tool for having an immediate perception of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629
-of-sample forecast accuracy are both statistically and economically significant. The factor-augmented predictive regressions have … the stability of their forecast accuracy, whereas the benchmark models suffer from a forecast breakdown during the 1990s. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382428
-of-sample forecast accuracy are both statistically and economically significant. The factor-augmented predictive regressions have … the stability of their forecast accuracy, whereas the benchmark models suffer from a forecast breakdown during the 1990s. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326025
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013553042
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014368525
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202173
We investigate the information content of business tendency surveys for key macroeconomic variables in Switzerland. To summarise the information of a large data set of sectoral business tendency surveys we extract a small number of common factors by a principal components estimator. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
. It can be concluded from their analyses that although their methods are atheoretical they provide reasonable forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512536
The authors analyze 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress which are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011478512