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Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Perraudin, W. R. M.; Kumar, Manmohan S.; Moorthy, Uma - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825803

Foreign Aid and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy

Turnovsky, Stephen J.; Tekin, Serpil; Cerra, Valerie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

A dynamic dependent-economy model is developed to investigate the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign aid. If capital is perfectly mobile between sectors, untied aid has no longrun impact on the real exchange rate. A decline in the traded sector occurs because...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825842

Patterns of Shocks and Regional Monetary Cooperation in South Asia

Maskay, Nephil Matangi - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

? Data from South Asia suggest that member states have minor trade linkages and face asymmetrical patterns of shocks. This …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825897

Yen Bloc or Yuan Bloc; An Analysis of Currency Arrangements in East Asia

Shirono, Kazuko - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009

if China's relative presence continues to rise in the regional trade. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826046

Estimating Iceland's Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate

Tchaidze, Robert - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

Given recent developments in Iceland, this paper evaluates its real exchange rate disequilibrium. It discusses three approaches to estimating the equilibrium values and suggests that the adjustment needed to bring the real exchange rate in line with fundamentals is in the range of 15-25 percent,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826225

The Second Transition; Eastern Europe in Perspective

Leigh, Daniel; Fabrizio, Stefania; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009

plan to market and, then, in the run-up to and entry into the European Union, they rode a wave of global trade and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826579

Comments and Discussion (Symposium on Exchange Rates, Trade, and Capital Flows)

Fischer, Stanley - In: Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 17 (1986) 1, pp. 227-235

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009018982

The Sensitivity of Export Quantities to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade

Oguro, Yoko - Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University - 2011

intra-industry trade (IIT), this paper theoretically and empirically investigates this relationship. The model presented …-country industry-panels for the bilateral trade of eight East Asian countries, Japan, and the United States with the EU, Asia, Japan … redress trade imbalances when substantial IIT exists. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009020180

To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?

Huchet-Bourdon, Marilyne; Korinek, Jane - Trade and Agriculture Directorate, Organisation de … - 2011

Trade deficits and surpluses are sometimes attributed to intentionally low or high exchange rate levels. The impact of … exchange rate levels on trade has been much debated but the large body of existing empirical literature does not suggest an … unequivocally clear picture of the trade impacts of changes in exchange rates. The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade also …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320172

Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes by Regression Methods

Bleaney, Michael; Tian, Mo - School of Economics, University of Nottingham - 2014

A new and easily implemented regression method is proposed for distinguishing floating from pegged regimes, whilst simultaneously identifying anchors of pegged currencies. The method can distinguish pegs with occasional devaluations from floats, and can be used to generate annual regime...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010757443