Individuals exhibit a randomization preference if they prefer random mixtures of two bets to each of the involved bets. Such preferences provide the foundation of various models of uncertainty aversion. However, it has to our knowledge not been empirically investigated whether uncertainty-averse...

Variance of exchange rates around predictions can be from 1) undiscovered fundamentals, 2) efficient markets, 3) destabilising speculation, or 4) regime and personality differences in the heuristics used in the stage of evaluating alternatives. Field and experimental evidence identifies 4) as...

Conclusions favorable to flexible exchange rates typically accord with expected utility theory in ignoring the costs that exchange rate uncertainty generates for governments, central banks, firms and unions in: (i) choosing among acts; and (ii) existing until learning the outcome of the chosen...

In the decision-making process, there is a stage when choosers evaluate alternatives. Evaluation is complex especially when it involves the future exchange rate. In the complexity of predicting the future exchange rate, choosers may use prominent numbers and ratios. We furnish field and...

The paper traces the dangers in the closed economy perspective of a monetary policy focused on a domestic inflation goal under a clean float. Field evidence of the damage wrought from this perspective is reinforced by that from a laboratory experiment. The laboratory experiment avoids...

This paper’s field evidence is: (1) many official sectors rapidly forget the damage of the 1982-85 exchange rate liquidity crisis and reverted to what caused that crisis, namely a closed economy clean floats perspective; and (2) the 2006-2008/9 exchange rate liquidity shock would have been more...

The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on prominent numbers, indices or ratios. In this paper the concept is used to show three things in how scientists and practitioners analyse and evaluate to decide (conclude). First,...

We examine in an experiment the causes, consequences and possible cures of myopic loss aversion (MLA) for investment behaviour under risk. We find that both, investment horizons and feedback frequency contribute almost equally to the effects of MLA. Longer investment horizons and less frequent...

ROC curves from the signal detection literature are used in an evolutionary analysis of one-shot and repeated prisoners' dilemmas: showing if there is any discounting of future payoffs, or any cost of searching for an additional partner, then cooperative players who contingently participate - in...

ROC curves from the signal detection literature are used in an evolutionary analysis of one-shot and repeated prisoners' dilemmas: showing if there is any discounting of future payoffs, or any cost of searching for an additional partner, then cooperative players who contingently participate - in...