This paper quantifies the dynamic macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Germany, allowing for anticipation effects of preannounced tax reforms. Identification is achieved using a narrative approach, which provides information about the timing of tax reforms. An anticipated cut in taxes has a...

This is the first study to evaluate the effects of early pension withdrawal policies on tenures on unemployment payments in the COVID-19 context. We use a novel set of linked whole-of-population administrative records to examine more than half-a-million Australians who found themselves newly on...

This paper aims to investigate the effects of various fiscal policy measures for small and open economies by analysing the implications of fiscal shocks in the Baltic countries based on data for the period from 1995 to 2018. For this purpose, we have chosen structural VAR estimation methods...

While there is a general agreement on the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus, there is no consensus on which stimulus is better. To address this concern, this paper uses a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to propose a fiscal stimulus that Botswana can adopt given the slowing...

Mit dem Königsteiner Schlüssel werden Ausgaben und Aufgaben zwischen den Ländern in Deutschland verteilt. Zur Berechnung des Schlüssels wird der Bevölkerungsanteil zu einem Drittel und die Wirtschaftskraft der Länder zu zwei Dritteln angesetzt. Als Wirtschaftskraft werden die...

This paper investigates the impact of banking prudential regulation on sovereign risk. We show that prudential regulation reduces sovereign risk and induces governments to spend more. As a result, countries with tight prudential regulation have lower primary budget balances and accumulate more...

To meet the needs of a broad set of internal and external stakeholders now and into the future the Australian Treasury maintains a significant macroeconomic modelling capability. Treasury's current inhouse capability is similar to that of the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Joint...

This paper asks whether the post-Keynesian or New Keynesian paradigm provides a more realistic description of the effects of fiscal policy on output and consumption. I establish some macro and microeconomic stylized facts on fiscal multipliers and marginal propensities to consume based on the...

Recent macro developments in the euro area have highlighted the interactions between fiscal policy, sovereign debt, and financial fragility. We take a structural macroeconomic model with frictions in the financial intermediation process, in line with recent research, but introduce asset choice...

We estimate a DSGE model for Brazil that includes both anticipated and unanticipated fiscal shocks. The model contains a relatively detailed public sector, which allows us to investigate the effects of anticipation for a much wider array of fiscal instruments than previously considered in the...