This paper presents a framework for analysing the evolution of the structural government deficit estimated using the official EU methodology relevant for the Stability and Growth Pact. The focus of our framework lies in the analysis of the main driving forces of changes in estimated structural...

The reform of the Stability and Growth Pact and the incorporation of “debt brake” rules into national legislation have heavily increased the importance of structural balances in economic policymaking in Europe. As defined by the European Commission, structural balances are calculated by...

The new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models seems particularly suited for conducting scenario analysis. These models formalise the behaviour of economic agents on the basis of explicit micro-foundations. As a result, they appear less prone to the Lucas critique...

Before the crisis hit, many euro area countries had failed to create sufficient fiscal room for times of economic difficulty, which made a new reform of the Stability and Growth Pact inevitable. Above all, this most recent reform introduces an expenditure rule in the preventive arm of the pact,...

The new generation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models seems particularly suited for conducting scenario analysis. These models formalise the behaviour of economic agents on the basis of explicit micro-foundations. As a result, they appear less prone to the Lucas critique...

This paper presents a framework for analysing the evolution of the structural government deficit estimated using the official EU methodology relevant for the Stability and Growth Pact. The focus of our framework lies in the analysis of the main driving forces of changes in estimated structural...