Market share attraction models are useful tools for analyzing competitive structures. The models can be used to infer cross-effects of marketing-mix variables, but also the own effects can be adequately estimated while conditioning on competitive reactions. Important features of attraction...

We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

This paper proposes a methodology to jointly generate optimal forecasts from an autoregression of order p for 1 to h steps ahead. The relevant model is a Partial Least Squares Autoregression, which is positioned in between a single AR(p) model for all forecast horizons and different AR models...

This article proposes a modified method for the construction of diffusion indexes in macroeconomic forecasting using principal component regres- sion. The method aims to maximize the amount of variance of the origi- nal predictor variables retained by the diffusion indexes, by matching the data...

With the advent of advanced data collection techniques, there is an increased interest in using econometric models to support decisions in marketing. Due to the sometimes specific nature of variables in marketing, the discipline uses econometric models that are rarely, if ever, used elsewhere....

We analyze periodic and seasonal cointegration models for bivariate quarterly observed time series in an empirical forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods. A VAR model in first differences with and without cointegration restrictions is also included in...

Experts may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve forecasts. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a...

In business and in macroeconomics it is common practice to use econo- metric models to generate forecasts. These models can take any degree of sophistication. Sometimes it is felt by an expert that the model-based fore- cast needs adjustment. This paper makes a plea for a formal approach to such...

The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are...