The paper assesses the usefulness of selective hedging strategies when combined with forecast techniques in the live hog contract. The use of routine futures and options hedging is not attractive relative to a cash-only strategy. However, forecasting and hedging can contribute to price risk...

The forecasting ability of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitment’s of Traders data set is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) market returns. However, there is substantial...

Decisions made by publicly traded agribusinesses impact suppliers, processors, farmers, and even rural communities. Professional analysts’ estimates of earnings per share (EPS) provide a unique source of information regarding firm-level financial performance. Incorporating a battery of tests,...

The forecasting content of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders (COT) report is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that traders’ positions are useful in forecasting (leading) returns in 10 agricultural futures...

Price volatility in the corn market has changed considerably globalization and stronger linkages to the energy complex. Using data from January 1989 through December 2009, we estimate and forecast the volatility in the corn market using futures daily prices. Estimates in a Fractional Integrated...

Price volatility in the corn market has changed considerably globalization and stronger linkages to the energy complex. Using data from January 1989 through December 2009, we estimate and forecast the volatility in the corn market using futures daily prices. Estimates in a Fractional Integrated...

Recently, the continuous double auction, i.e. the trading mechanism used in the majority of the financial markets, is the subject of an extensive study. In the present paper, a model of the continuous double auction with the completely random flow of the limit orders is studied. The main result...

PROBLEM SOLVING OF FORECASTING ON SHORT PERIODS IN THE CASE OF TRANSITIONAL STRUCTURE-CHANGING CHARACTER OF DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMICS IN THE PRESENCE OF CONSIDERABLE SEASONAL AND STOCHASTIC COMPONENTS IN TIME SERIES. MODEL OF NONLINEAR-ADDITIVE SEASONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH MULTIPLICATIVE STOCHASTIC...

Implications of nonlinearity, nonstationarity and misspecification are considered from a forecasting perspective. My model allows for small departures from the martingale difference sequence hypothesis by including a nonlinear component, formulated as a general, integrable transformation of the...

Romer (1993) suggests that universities should undertake experiments that would test the value of mandatory attendance for economics courses. He presents evidence showing that those who attended his classes received higher grades on his exams and concluded that “an important part of the...