This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

Forecasting exchange rate is very important for monetary policy makers in order to prevent unexpected changes of exchange rate. This paper has used Newton's method for forecasting exchange rate of U.S. dollar/pound (24/03/2003—17/11/2011) in Iranian economy. Comparison of the original trends...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

Accidents forecast of various nature with sufficient economic damage, maximal loss enhancement, elimination of their consequences is a national wide problem It is an important concern of authorities and all levels management In order to solve this problem we need a forecast system for...

This paper investigates the behaviour of weekly hardware sales in the Japanese video game sector. It is found that weekly hardware sales exhibit significant linear and non-linear behaviours during the product cycle. We are going to analyse the implications of our findings for management control...

A mathematical model of regional economic system taking in account both the material and human capital is presented. An algorithm of identification of model unknown parameters on the basis of a genetic algorithm with material coding and the Hook-Zeeves method is constructed. Identification and...

According to housing investment models, house prices and replacement costshould have an equilibrating relationship. Previous empirical work|mainlybased on aggregate-level data|has found only little evidence of such a relationship.By using a unique data set, covering transactions of...

We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...

The forecasting of government revenues is extremely important for an adequate budget execution, since a good accuracy in the estimation allows the stipulation of an expenditure level that meets the demands of the population. Using data released by the National Council of Treasury Policy, the...