Showing 1 - 10 of 10
In this paper we analyze an econometric model for non-stationary asset returns. Volatility dynamics are modelled by nonparametric regression; consistency and asymptotic normality of a symmetric and of a one-sided kernel estimator are outlined with remarks on the bandwidth decision. Further...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010311043
Many economic studies on inflation forecasting have found favorable results when inflation is modeled as a stationary process around a slowly time-varying trend. In contrast, the existing studies on interest rate forecasting either treat yields as being stationary, without any shifting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326362
The present paper seeks to cast scepticism on the validity and value of the results of all earlier studies in India on energy demand analysis and forecasting based on time series regression, on three grounds. (i) As these studies did not care for model adequacy diagnostic checking, indispensably...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005537330
This discussion paper led to a publication in the <A HREF="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.2358/abstract"><I>Journal of Applied Econometrics</I></A>, 2014, 29, pages 693-712.<P> Many economic studies on inflation forecasting have found favorable results when inflation is modeled as a stationary process around a slowly time-varying trend. In contrast, the existing...</p></i></a>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257019
In this paper we analyze an econometric model for non-stationary asset returns. Volatility dynamics are modelled by nonparametric regression; consistency and asymptotic normality of a symmetric and of a one-sided kernel estimator are outlined with remarks on the bandwidth decision. Further...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010985509
This paper presents a novel dynamic factor model for non-stationary data. We begin by constructing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium growth model and show that we can represent and estimate the model using a simple linear-Gaussian (Kalman) filter. Crucially, consistent estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926762
Emerging markets are more volatile and face different types of shocks, in size and nature, compared to their developed counterparts. Accurate identification of the stochastic properties of shocks is difficult. We show evidence suggesting that uncertainty about the underlying stochastic process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876576
The present paper seeks to cast scepticism on the validity and value of the results of all earlier studies in India on energy demand analysis and forecasting based on time series regression, on three grounds. (i) As these studies did not care for model adequacy diagnostic checking, indispensably...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008671985
This paper describes some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting. The framework we develop helps explain the findings of forecasting competitions and the prevalence of forecast failure. It constitutes a general theoretical background against which recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010605164
This paper presents a novel dynamic factor model for non-stationary data. We begin by constructing a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium growth model and show that we can represent and estimate the model using a simple linear-Gaussian (Kalman) filter. Crucially, consistent estimation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011669132