Characterizing asset return dynamics using volatility models is an important part of empirical finance. The existing literature favors some rather complex volatility specifications whose relative performance is usually assessed through their likelihood based on a time-series of asset returns....

By analyzing fictitious options - a unique approach - significant mispricing due to the formula of Black and Scholes can be shown systematically and independent from market distortion. Even options based on fictitious, lognormally distributed courses are not valued properly. According to the Law...

Bayesian statistical methods are naturally oriented towards pooling in a rigorous way information from separate sources. It has been suggested that both historical and implied volatilities convey information about future volatility. However, typically in the literature implied and return...

We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...

Characterizing asset return dynamics using volatility models is an important part of empirical finance. The existing literature on GARCH models favors some rather complex volatility specifications whose relative performance is usually assessed through their likelihood based on a time series of...

We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differ in their...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

To date, an operational measure of systemic risk capturing non-linear tail comovement between system-wide and individual bank returns has not yet been developed. This paper proposes an extension of the so-called CoVaR measure that captures the asymmetric response of the banking system to...

This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information...