Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on...

The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of foresight methods and techniques, with the aim of updating the debate and highlighting the more recent approaches in the field. In revisiting these methods and techniques, we observed the need for a brief incursion in an epistemological...

This work examines a recent study that used various forecasting methods and in particular the Delphi method, to understand how the indicators were selected during the development of the prospective study. It can be concluded that the indicators in the study were selected through discussion on...

The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch) as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting...

The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of foresight methods and techniques, with the aim of updating the debate and highlighting the more recent approaches in the field. In revisiting these methods and techniques, we observed the need for a brief incursion in an epistemological...

The present paper develops Adaptive Trees, a new machine learning approach specifically designed for economic forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions and discontinuities) and unknown structural changes (the...

In recent years the issue of life expectancy has become of upmost importance to pension providers, insurance companies and the government bodies in the developed world. Significant and consistent improvements in mortality rates and hence life expectancy have led to unprecedented increases in the...

A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular pension policy response to continuous longevity improvements. The question addressed here is: to what extent is simply adopting this approach likely to fulfill the overall goals...

Increasing retirement ages in an automatic or scheduled way with increasing life expectancy at retirement is a popular pension policy response to continuous longevity improvements. The question addressed here is: to what extent is simply adopting this approach likely to fulfill the overall goals...