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Central banks analyze a wide range of data to obtain better measures of underlying inflationary pressures. Factor models have widely been used to formalize this procedure. Using a dynamic factor model this paper develops a measure of underlying inflation (UIG) at time horizons of relevance for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287106
Michigan Surveys of Consumers. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441916
This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010328558
This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661541
index and to evaluate the role of financial variables in forecasting. We considered two models which allow forecasting based … univariate methods for forecasting inflation at one, three, six, and twelve months and industrial production at one and three … months. We find that financial variables do help forecasting inflation, but do not help forecasting industrial production. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789173
series on the Estonian economy. In order to improve forecasting of economic activity in Estonia, we derive a leading …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005157585
-making process, particularly in inflation-targeting countries, and are utilized in forecasting and modelling exercises. In South a … energy prices, dynamic factor models and wavelet decompositions. After considering the forecasting ability of these measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011204506
This paper is concerned with inflation targeting as a potential monetary policy objective in a developing economy. Using data from Nicaragua, it first studies the extent to which the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could be used to formulate short-run inflation targets. It is found that due to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005752758
from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation …, Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While useful in developing models of forecasting inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647210