This paper provides an answer to the question of how to improve the forecasting performance of a macro model to better account for economic developments and how to evaluate the forecasting uncertainty. The main tool in this assessment is stochastic simulation. Stochastic simulations in this...

This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also...

This paper contains a description of a small quarterly forecasting model for the Finnish economy. We evaluate the forecasting properties of the model by means of stochastic simulation involving both the endogenous and exogenous variables of the model. The simulations allow us to identify and...