In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and highdimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention to penalized regressions and ensemble of models. The...

In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and highdimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention to penalized regressions and ensemble of models. The...

We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume that both the number of covariates in the model and the number of candidate variables can increase with the sample size (polynomially orgeometrically). In other...

We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume both the number of covariates in the model and candidate variables can increase with the number of observations and the number of candidate variables is,...

We study the asymptotic properties of the Adaptive LASSO (adaLASSO) in sparse, high-dimensional, linear time-series models. We assume that both the number of covariates in the model and the number of candidate variables can increase with the sample size (polynomially or geometrically). In other...

In this paper we consider modeling and forecasting of large realized covariance matrices by penalized vector autoregressive models. We propose using Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality to a manageable one and provide strong theoretical performance guarantees on the forecast...

Does volatility reflect a continuous reaction to past shocks or changes in the markets induce shifts in the volatility dynamics? In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that cumulated price variations convey meaningful information about multiple regimes in the realized volatility of stocks,...

In this paper we propose a flexible model to capture nonlinearities and long-range dependence in time series dynamics. The new model is a multiple regime smooth transition extension of the Heterogenous Autoregressive (HAR) model, which is specifically designed to model the behavior of the...