We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition...

The paper analyses the empirical relationship between bank credit risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area, using a system of simultaneous equations identified through heteroskedasticity. We first confirm a two-way causality between both risks, which amplifies initial credit risk shocks....

We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously,...

We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption...

We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively....

We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition...

With its America First strategy, the former US administration turned away from an internationally oriented trade policy. It attempted to assert its interests, especially vis-à-vis China, with bilateral and mostly restrictive measures such as import tariffs. This Weekly Report shows that the...

Mit ihrer America-First-Strategie hat sich die letzte US-Regierung von einer international ausgerichteten Handelspolitik abgewendet. Sie versuchte, ihre Interessen, gerade gegenüber China, mit bilateralen und meist restriktiven Maßnahmen, wie Importzöllen, durchzusetzen. Der Beitrag zeigt,...

This paper studies the effects of financial speculation on commodity futures returns, using publicly available data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, aggregated by trader groups. We exploit the heteroskedasticity in the weekly data to identify exogenous variation in speculators'...

We develop a vector autoregressive framework for combining the information in an external instrument with the information in the second moments of the data to identify latent monetary shocks in the United States. We show that the framework improves the identification of the structural model and...