We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international...

In recent years, the decline in inflation in Angola has stalled and further steps may be needed to attain the authorities' medium term goal of meeting the Southern African Development Community (SADC) convergence criteria of a low single digit inflation rate. A Vector Error Correction (VEC)...

This paper reviews economic developments in Slovenia during 1990–96. Slovenia experienced its first positive real GDP growth in 1993. Real GDP grew by 1.3 percent. This modest recovery began under the impetus of buoyant domestic demand, which grew by 8¼ percent; real foreign demand...

This Selected Issues paper examines Israel’s monetary policy regime with an eye toward developing some understanding of why breaches have been occurring and how to address them. The paper provides a brief history of Israel’s experience with inflation and inflation targeting. It...

This paper focuses on the 2005 Article IV Consultation and Review of the Program Supported by Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance for Haiti. Economic and social conditions in Haiti deteriorated significantly during the early 2000, as the continued political stalemate undermined external financial...

The People's Bank of China (PBC) has made great strides in modernizing its monetary policy frameworks but their effectiveness will diminish as the sophistication of the economy increases. Empirical evidence supports maintaining a reference to money in China's monetary strategy and enhancing the...

This paper presents a survey of the literature on the measurement of central bank autonomy. We distinguish inputs that constitute the building blocks in the literature, and the literature that builds on them. Issues including sensitivity analysis, robustness, and endogeneity are discussed. The...

The continuing weakness of activity in the euro area reflects an amalgam of cyclical and long-term forces that are likely to shape the outlook and to challenge policies. Financial conditions in the area have improved along with those in global markets, though financial fragilities may be...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that New Zealand’s GDP growth was particularly strong in 2004, at 4.8 percent, led by a surge in domestic demand. Private consumption grew by 6 percent, reflecting high employment growth, strong commodity prices, and household borrowing against...