In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict recessions. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic indicators, and...

In this paper we analyze the power of various indicators to predict growth rates of aggregate production using real-time data. In addition, we assess their ability to predict turning points of the economy. We consider four groups of indicators: survey data, composite indicators, real economic...

The German economy is in a downward spiral. The recent price jumps for electricity and gas will reduce the purchasing power of private households and lead to a decline in private consumer spending. In addition, the slowing world economy will dampen not only exports but also investment activity....

The German economy is working its way out of the energy crisis. In recent months, the economic outlook has improved somewhat. However, overall economic production will increase only moderately. GDP is expected to increase by 0.5 percent in the current year and by 1.4 percent in 2024, slightly...

Mit dem abermaligen Rückgang des Bruttoinlandsprodukts im ersten Quartal und den zuletzt eingetrübten Konjunkturindikatoren haben sich die Sorgen gemehrt, dass die Nachwehen der Energiekrise und die Straffung der Geldpolitik die Wirtschaft stärker belasten könnten als zuvor erwartet....

The renewed decline in GDP in the first quarter and the recent deterioration in leading indicators have increased concerns that the aftermath of the energy crisis and the tightening of monetary policy may weigh more heavily on the economy than expected. However, all in all it is more likely that...

The German economy is regaining momentum. GDP is forecast to increase by 1.7 percent in 2015 and 1.9 percent in 2016. Initially, the acceleration in economic growth will be driven in particular by private consumption thanks to a sharp increase in income and higher purchasing power as a result of...

The German economy remains on a robust growth track. For the current year we expect GDP to increase by 1.8 percent. Next year, the rate of expansion is likely to accelerate to 2.1 percent. The private consumption boom continues, albeit not quite at the same rapid pace as in the past quarters, as...

Economic activity in the Euro Area is gradually gaining grip in 2015. Sentiment indicators suggest that the current - rather moderate - recovery will prevail over the second half of the year. The upswing is expected to broaden and to be increasingly driven by domestic forces. It is supported by...