Using a sample that provides unprecedented detail on foreign listings, new listings, and delistings for 29 exchanges in 24 countries starting from the early 1980s, we document a growing tendency of listings to concentrate in the U.S. and the U.K., and large changes in all exchanges’ ability to...

This paper tries to identify the nature of historical market-to-book ratio, that is, whether it can be used as a market timing proxy or growth opportunity proxy and to find out its impact on capital structure and the adjustment speed to target capital structure. Using a panel data analysis we...

We decompose the conditional expected mutual fund return in five parts. Two parts, selectivity and expert market timing, can be attributed to manager skill, and three to variation in market exposure that can be achieved by private investors as well. The dynamic model that we use to estimate the...

In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting stock index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954 to...

Stock issuance predicts future stock returns in the Korean market. This creates profitable trading opportunities. Abnormal returns exist in the zero-cost portfolio that short the firms issuing large numbers of shares and longs those issuing small numbers of shares. Their average abnormal return...

We compare valuation effects associated with debt issuance under SEC Rule 144A versus issuance in the public market. We find that nonconvertible debt Rule 144A issuers experience an incremental positive announcement effect when compared to their counterparts issuing in the public market. We...

A well-documented empirical result is that market expectations extracted from futures contracts on the federal funds rate are among the best predictors for the future course of monetary policy. We show how this information can be exploited to produce accurate forecasts of bond excess returns and...

This paper investigates market timing and selectivity performance of equity pension funds in Turkey over the period of March 2006-February 2011. Single index model is used to test the ability of selecting financial assets correctly and Quadratic Treynor-Mazuy (TM) and Henriksson-Merton (HM)...

In this paper, we propose an integrated model of capital structure to study the partial adjustment process to the optimal long term debt ratio. In our analysis, we consider the characteristics of the institutional environment as a factor that influences such adjustment. We use a sample of quoted...

This paper presents a case study of a well-informed investor in the South Sea bubble. We argue that Hoare's Bank, a fledgling West End London banker, knew that a bubble was in progress and that it invested knowingly in the bubble; it was profitable to "ride the bubble." Using a unique dataset on...