An essential ingredient in models of career concerns is ex ante uncertainty about an agent's type. This paper shows how career concerns can arise even in the absence of any such ex ante uncertainty, if the unobservable actions that an agent takes influence his future productivity. By...

We introduce a notion of subgames for stochastic timing games and the related notion of subgame-perfect equilibrium in possibly mixed strategies. While a good notion of subgame-perfect equilibrium for continuous-time games is not available in general, we argue that our model is the appropriate...

We construct subgame-perfect equilibria with mixed strategies for symmetric stochastic timing games with arbitrary strategic incentives. The strategies are qualitatively different for local first- or second-mover advantages, which we analyse in turn. When there is a local second-mover advantage,...

This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model forecasts, and forecasts combining those two using a...

Risk aversion in game theory is usually modeled using expected utility, which was criticized early on, leading to an extensive literature on generalized expected utility. In this paper we are the first to apply μ-σ theory to the analysis of (static) games. μ-σ theory is widely...

We study the long-run stochastic stability properties of volunteering strategies in finite populations. We allow for mixed strategies, characterized by the probability that a player may not volunteer. A pairwise comparison of evolutionary strategies shows that the strategy with a lower...

We analyze a model of repeated bilateral trade with moral hazard, where the quality of goods received can differ from the quality despatched due to deterioration during transportation. Since the sender does not observe the quality of good received and the receiver does not observe the quality...

The article studies a spatial model of commodity tax competition between two countries that may differ in both population density and land mass, synthesizing two earlier contributions where pure strategy equilibria always existed and where the ‘bigger’ country (that with the larger...