Japan's aging and shrinking population could lower the natural rate of interest and, together with low inflation expectations, challenge the Bank of Japan's efforts to reflate the economy. This paper uses a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographics on the natural rate in...

The natural, equilibrium, or neutral Interest rate - or short r* - has been controversial among economists ever since it was introduced almost 150 years ago. As a conceptual tool that cannot be directly measured but only estimated by models, its value depends on the relevance for explaining...

I extend the model of Laubach and Williams (2003) by introducing an explicit role for the financial cycle in the joint estimation of the natural rates of interest, unemployment and output, and the sustainable growth rate of the US economy. By incorporating the financial cycle - arguably an...

I extend the model of Laubach and Williams (2003) by introducing an explicit role for the financial cycle in the joint estimation of the natural rates of interest, unemployment and output, and the sustainable growth rate of the US economy. By incorporating the financial cycle - arguably an...

This paper studies the evolution of the natural interest rate in five Southeast Asian countries and considers the effect of economic shocks on the natural interest rate in these countries. The natural interest rate is the interest rate that would prevail in an economy in equilibrium and in the...