This article employs structural break tests of unknown point with nuisance parameter to test for possible break in China's business cycle volatility and identifies that the last quarter of 1995 is the significant structural break point. The paper then constructs a counterfactual analysis to...

Using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method, this paper estimates China's output gap based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among real output, inflation, money, and the exchange rate in China during the period 1980-2010. The authors...

This paper examines whether the major components of China's real gross domestic product (GDP) have exhibited smoother, less volatile growth since the late 1990s, and, if so, what has caused this "great moderation" in their growth. Employing unknown-structural-breakpoint tests and constructing a...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that backward-looking inflation inertia dominates the dynamics of the short-run aggregate...