The cyclical aspects of recent economic performance are well-known and disappointing: after falling 1.6 percent from third quarter 1990 through first quarter 1991, real GDP has risen very gradually for three quarters and, aided by the recent monetary easing, the economy is mounting a stronger...

The course of the economy this year may have detoured slightly, but has not been derailed by the crisis in Middle Eastern deserts. The U.S. economy was already flirting with recession before Iraq invaded Kuwait. The short-run effects of the invasion create the worst of all worlds from the...

Since 1959 the U. S. has experienced six recessions, not counting the recession that began, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, in March 2001. If the date the latest recession ended is taken to be 12/01, in line with Chairman Greenspan?s testimony on March 7, 2002, that...

The risk of recession in 1988 has diminished significantly since the end of last year. Since the SOMC meeting last September, two developments posed a possible risk to continued economic expansion in 1988: First, the stock market crash of October 19 was thought by some observers to have severely...